China Will Struggle to Escape the Fallout of Zero-COVID

China’s rigorous zero-COVID policy is being maintained in methods similar to those seen in early 2020. Quarantine periods of a month or more, sudden lockdowns of residential blocks and neighborhoods, social restrictions that are forcing some businesses into heavy losses or bankruptcy, and the killing (let us call it what it is) of more than 2,200 pet hamsters may appear shocking to societies that are now calming their response to COVID-19. What is the endgame, after all?

To be sure, China has good reasons for pursuing tight zero-COVID policies. A quick outbreak of illnesses has the potential to overwhelm healthcare systems, squeezing out others who require treatment for unrelated conditions. Even before the pandemic outbreak, China’s public hospitals were overburdened and lacked the capacity to respond to public health emergencies. Even though Omicron is a milder variation, older or immunocompromised individuals are at risk of severe disease or death, and the longer-term repercussions of COVID-19 appear to weigh heavily on the minds of Chinese people.

When considering the concept of sunk cost, the difficulty of China’s issue becomes much more apparent. Officials may be influenced by the sunk cost bias to prevent “waste” prior efforts by changing the COVID-19 containment strategy; as a result, they are more likely to stick to tough measures to preserve zero infections rather than risk squandering their early success suppressing the virus. Individuals can be affected by this bias. Those who have made personal sacrifices by refusing to travel for holidays or to see relatives, or in more severe cases by losing their careers and enterprises, may not appreciate their years of effort being rendered irrelevant if a living-with-COVID-19 posture is adopted. This domestic issue adds an extra layer of difficulty to the predicament.

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https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/china-will-struggle-to-escape-the-fallout-of-zero-covid/